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An S&P 500 10% correction is likely this summer, says Piper Sandler

admin by admin
June 26, 2024
in Business
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An S&P 500 10% correction is likely this summer, says Piper Sandler
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It’s time to heed the warning signs in markets, according to Piper Sandler. Craig Johnson, the firm’s chief market technician, expects the S & P 500 will tumble 10% this summer, saying investors are failing to heed red flags that include poor market breadth and waning momentum. A fall of 10% from Tuesday’s close of 5,469.30 would place the broad market index at around 4,920. “When driving a car and an Engine Warning Light pops on, most drivers, at least those older than nineteen, would safely pull over the vehicle and assess the meaning of the Warning Light(s) on the car’s dashboard or call an adult,” Johnson wrote on Thursday. “Like the car dashboard, equity market warning lights are starting to flash, but most investors can’t hear or see them as the F.O.M.O in the markets is cranked up, and investors are just enjoying the ride,” he added, referring to a “fear of missing out.” “However, the longer these warning lights flash, the more painful the repair bill (market correction) will be,” Johnson said. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Stocks have surged this year, largely due to the outperformance of artificial intelligence megacap technology companies such as Nvidia. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are higher this year by roughly 15% and 18%, respectively. Just last week, the S & P 500 breached 5,500 for the first time. Now, however, investors fear that markets have run too far, too fast, and are in for a far more choppy second half of 2024. Nvidia, which last week briefly became the world’s most valuable public company , has now tumbled 10% from its 52-week high. “Based on the market warning lights flashing on our dashboard, we believe the S & P 500 is overdue for maintenance, and a 10% correction back to the rising 200-day MA/lower end of the upward trending price channel off the 2022 lows is likely,” Johnson wrote. Johnson anticipates that the S & P 500 will end the year at 5,050, or 7% lower than where it closed Tuesday. The chart watcher said he is raising his cash levels to 20% from 10%, or the model’s highest level since mid-2007. He said he’s reducing his equity exposure to 80% from 90%, and upgrading industrial stocks to overweight from neutral while downgrading services to neutral from overweight. “We recognize this is a bold call, but based on the weight of the Technical evidence, we believe it’s the right call at this time,” he wrote.



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The Kobeissi Letter Follow

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kobeissiletter The Kobeissi Letter @kobeissiletter ·
16h

You can't make this up:

Rate cuts are being priced-out, Ukraine struck Russian territory with US missiles, and Nvidia, $NVDA, fell after earnings.

Yet, the S&P 500 is now just ~1% away from entering new all time high territory.

Is the post-election rally back?

(a thread)

Reply on Twitter 1859588143281746168 Retweet on Twitter 1859588143281746168 25 Like on Twitter 1859588143281746168 378 Twitter 1859588143281746168
kobeissiletter The Kobeissi Letter @kobeissiletter ·
15h

This is absolutely insane:

Nvidia, $NVDA, just erased $175 billion of market cap in 8 minutes.

At 9:32 AM ET, the stock peaked at $152.89 before falling to a low of $144.34 at 9:40 AM ET.

That's a -5.6% downswing in the world's largest public company in 8 minutes.

How is this… https://x.com/i/web/status/1859608776334025201

Reply on Twitter 1859608776334025201 Retweet on Twitter 1859608776334025201 55 Like on Twitter 1859608776334025201 256 Twitter 1859608776334025201
kobeissiletter The Kobeissi Letter @kobeissiletter ·
15h

BREAKING: Nvidia stock, $NVDA, surges 4% to a new record high at the open.

Nvidia is now worth over $3.7 TRILLION for the first time in history.

This makes Nvidia $250 billion LARGER than Apple, $AAPL.

Reply on Twitter 1859606276822434012 Retweet on Twitter 1859606276822434012 32 Like on Twitter 1859606276822434012 231 Twitter 1859606276822434012
kobeissiletter The Kobeissi Letter @kobeissiletter ·
16h

You can't make this up:

Rate cuts are being priced-out, Ukraine struck Russian territory with US missiles, and Nvidia, $NVDA, fell after earnings.

Yet, the S&P 500 is now just ~1% away from entering new all time high territory.

Is the post-election rally back?

(a thread)

Reply on Twitter 1859588143281746168 Retweet on Twitter 1859588143281746168 25 Like on Twitter 1859588143281746168 378 Twitter 1859588143281746168
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